According to the Bryan Allen (D -Bucks) for State Representative campaign, they’re heading into the stretch run in the House District 18 race leading incumbent Kathleen “K.C.” Tomlinson by about four percentage points in a recently released poll
Tomlinson won the district by slightly more than 11 points in 2024 and just over four points in 2022.
The State Navigate poll, which was released recently, has a plus/minus of 5.2 percentage points.
The SN Poll queeried 427 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th State House District from July 31 through August 3, 2026. 46 percent of those polled identified as Democrats; 44 percent as Republican; and 1o percent as Independent.
The survey was conducted via text-to-web, with voters being sent a text message by Alliance Forge that directed them to an online survey hosted on the Survey Monkey platform.
The poll revealed that likely Election Day voters favored Allen over Tomlinson when including “leaners’ and “undecideds.”
Allen’s four-point lead comes from his strength among the lowest propensity voters; the race is tied among
voters who participated in 2-4 of the last general elections.
State Rep K.C. Tomlinson at press conference in Bensalem in 2024
According to the poll, Tomlinson performs best with upper-middle-class voters, boasting a 13-point lead among voters earning $100K-$150K/year. However, The wealthiest voters are split down the middle: both candidates have 49% of the vote among those who make more than $150K/year.
According to its website, SN is a a nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization led by its Board of Directors evenly divided among political party identification. Its staff consists of experts across the political spectrum.
This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
Shortly after the poll results were released, the Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee said it would deepen its investments in 10 Pennsylvania State House candidates – the Allen campaign was among those chosen.
Lower Bucks Source broke the news Allen was going to challenge Tomlinson in February.
Allen opened his run for the 18th House District by calling out Tomlinson for her lack of movement on charter school reform.
In turn, Tomlinson accused Allen and his campaign of lying and being misleading—saying Allen now claims to have “all the answers.”
Allen recently released a 30 second campaign ad across various social media apps called called “Coach,” which focuses on fully funding public schools, bringing down property taxes and giving “…kids the shot they deserve.”
Tomlinson who recently gave birth to her daughter Vivienne, was out campaigning recently said, “When they go low and tell lies, we go out and knock doors.”
The race between the two Bensalem residents, one political observer said, has been “politely contentious.”
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