Since the Fitzpatrick name began appearing and mostly winning congressional races since the early 2000’s (first Mike, now Brian) a consistent pattern has emerged when it comes to political predictions for any given upcoming election cycle; analysts will say, and they have said, that because the district has leaned slightly democratic, Fitzpatrick’s seat in the House of Representatives would be in jeopardy.
In the two last two election cycles where abortion was allegedly a significant issue in voters’ minds, and one with Roe v Wade overturned Fitzpatrick’s soundly defeated “pro-choice candidate” Democrat Ashley Ehasz and in 2024 romped by 13 points, romping by a larger margin than the prior election cycles.
Earlier this month, Politics PA listed the congressman from Levittown as the fourth most vulnerable among the currently elected Pennsylvania representatives in the House.
“Fitzpatrick has been a white whale for Democrats: He’s a Republican, but he consistently wins reelection in a district that vote’s Democratic for president. In 2024, Fitzpatrick was one of only three Republicans to win in districts that backed vice president Kamala Harris over President Donald Trump.
A key point, which Democrats refuse to acknowledge, is that registered Democratic voters put a checkmark next to the Fitzpatrick name in congressional elections. They have done so for years. The numbers back this up with Republicans leading slightly over Democrats in terms of registered voters, 202,257 to 192,416 according to county voter numbers as recent as one week ago.
Democrats, political experts say, have as much of a chance as any in recent memory of flipping the seat in the form of Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie who announced he was running for the seat earlier this year. Harvie, unlike every other candidate to challenge the Fitzpatrick brand since 2012 is a well-known figure in Bucks County politics. Harvie served as a Falls Township supervisor for 12 years. He spent 26 years as a high school history teacher and also taught American History at Bucks County Community College.
Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie at the Bristol Borough Council Meeting Monday night.
Harvie reported having $195,000 in the bank at the end of June; he’ll need to up his fundraising game to compete not only against an incumbent but also place ads in the expensive Philadelphia media market, the Politics PA report says.
“Fitzpatrick was one of just two Republicans to vote against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with one other out of state Republican. This might help him among crossover voters who backed Harris in 2024, but it could put him at risk among Trump supporters, with increased pressure for a primary challenger.
One other element could very well play out in the PA 1 Congressional race is Fitzpatrick’s very cold relationship with local Bucks County based press/media. Harvie, is seen as press friendly, Fitzpatrick however, not so much in recent years especially when it comes to being linked to President Donald Trump, as Levittown Now’s Tom Sofield revealed more than four years ago.
That linkage, is essentially what put an end to the congressman speaking with local news sources outside of a controlled setting, sources have said.
The race between the two men who reside in Lower Bucks County should prove to be eventful with all the local drama a non-presidential election can muster.
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